Looking into Windows 7’s Prediction Pool

Mary Jo Foley over at All About Microsoft is reinspecting the possibility of when Windows 7 will hit the market. Here's a snippet of what she had to say:

 

Quote:
"It sounds like Microsoft is aiming to get Windows 7 out earlier than it promised — at least if you believe the company’s CEO.

During his fireside chat with Chairman Bill Gates at the D6 conference on May 27, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer acknowledged that Microsoft was aiming to deliver Windows 7 in late 2009."

Read the entire article here

My Thoughts:

I am sticking to my prediction of February 2010. Microsoft will certainly give a Developer Preview of Windows 7 to attendees at the 2008 PDC for them to start getting ready with their applications as soon as possible. Microsoft has really straightened out their priorities when it comes to releasing Windows. As Steven Sinofsky mentioned, Windows Vista's unpredictability in addition to the reset kind of made IHV's and ISV's hesitate to start messing with Windows Vista, when they should have been getting their code ready from build 5048 released at WinHEC 2005, they actually waited until Vista RTMed in January 2007.

Speaking of IHVs, WinHEC 2008 will be a week later, which means possibly the same build of Windows 7 released to Microsoft's various hardware partners to start working on those device drivers or improve on existing ones to have a smooth release for Windows 7 RTM. One partner already is doing so (nVidia) by looking for a QA manager to ensure device driver quality. Details at Long Zhengs blog.

The next question is when is the beta going to start? Looking at a familiar pattern to past Windows releases, the most similar is actually Windows XP which was first previewed in July of 2000 and then went into beta 4 months later (October 2000), Vista might follow a similar part with a beta as early as February 2009. In fact, both Windows 7 and XP are minor releases from an architectual standpoint but possibly radical in features and UI. Microsoft of course will probably have a shorter beta cycle compared to Vista which was 15 months, I'm betting on 11 months for Windows 7, with RTM in December and GA as I previously noted in February 2010. The reason why I chose February is THE actual preparation needed to launch it world wide. The gap between Vista RTM and its General Availability was 3 months.

I do hope Microsoft pulls a surprise out of the hat and make Windows 7 available in time for the holiday seasons since this will definitely bring a boost to sales. Hey, if they can do it by August 2009, that would be even better for the back to school party.