Why Open Source Will Succeed on the Desktop…Without Linux.

I have been a consumer of Open Source software for a very long time. I first started dual-booting early (pre-Fedora) versions of Red Hat with Windows back in 1999. I ended up “graduating” to Slackware a few years after that, and in 2005, I pretty much went full-time with Ubuntu. Also, over the years I’ve kept up with various other Linux distros – If you go to DistroWatch and look through the list of distributions listed there, you’ll be hard pressed to find one that I haven’t tried (that even goes to include BSD distributions as well as Linux distributions).

Here lately, I’ve been having a love/hate relationship with (not only) Ubuntu, but with Linux in general. Linux is something I got “sucked up” in a long time ago, and it’s almost like I’m finally coming to my senses so to speak. Does Linux have it’s place? Sure it does. In the following paragraphs you’ll find my opinions on Linux, Open Source in general as well as other Open Source Operating Systems (and Windows too).

It seems every year since I first started messing with Linux, that someone was always saying “This is going to be the ‘Year of Linux on the Desktop’”. This has yet to happen. There have been minor blips in the radar, but nothing in the almost 10 years since I first saw my first Linux kernel boot that would suggest that Linux will ever be a true contender to Microsoft Windows or Apple’s Mac OS in the consumer desktop space.

Some of these blips include events such as the “Lindows PC”, Dell shipping Ubuntu pre-installed, IBM shipping Thinkpads with SuSE Linux Enterprise Desktop, the recent Netbook craze and (although it isn’t Linux) Toshiba will soon be shipping laptops pre-loaded with Sun’s OpenSolaris distribution. I’m sure there are many more cases similar to these as well, but yet, nothing has ever really caught on. People think of PC’s and Windows as synonymous with each other. Even the Apple adds that say “I’m a Mac & I’m a PC”. They don’t say “I’m a Mac & I’m a Windows Based PC” do they? No! Nobody outside of the small eclectic group of Linux enthusiasts would even think of Linux.

With those thoughts in mind, what do you would happen if a normal, unsuspecting computer user wound up with a Linux system without realizing what they were getting into? Well, a couple of days ago we got a chance to find out. On January 13, WKOW-TV in Madison WI broke a consumer relations story about a young lady who purchased a Laptop from Dell that was preloaded with Ubuntu. This young lady probably didn’t know what Linux was before this, and found herself in strange, foreign software and not being a ‘computer person’ as many of us are didn’t realize that she didn’t need her Verizon CD to get online with her DSL, and didn’t realize that she could use OpenOffice.org to be compatible with Microsoft Office. When that TV station put the story online it went viral in the Linux community. You would think that the Linux (and especially the Ubuntu community) would have rallied around this lady and tried to help her, but no. They not only ridiculed her, but they also set their sites on the TV station and it’s reporter (who probably also had never heard of Linux or Ubuntu before this) calling them both “stupid” and “idiots” and many other bad names. The station has reported in a follow-up two days later that the story had received over 120,000 page hits vs. the average of 15,000 they would normally see. They also received thousands of very hateful, angry emails and phone calls from Ubuntu ‘fans’ and the young lady was even persecuted on Facebook by Ubuntu and Linux ‘fans’. Even the reporter who broke the story wrote in his personal blog (that he):

found that a very small portion of the Ubuntu community is truly heartless losers. And that is very sad. Stop blaming those of us who aren’t techies for your inabilities to market a product properly. Stop blaming Windows/Mac for trying to block you from offering open source software. You think that all people should be as computer savvy as you and that’s just ludicrous. You perpetuate the stereotype of computer dorks who sit in their dark rooms staring at the little box with lights furiously typing their hatred for the rest of humanity. Your e-mails made all of us laugh hysterically all day long! And to those of you who sent Facebook messages to the woman in our story, calling her names and threatening her, you should be ashamed of yourselves.

Those of you Linux Lovers who I actually dialogued with who didn’t curse me out and offered some insight, you are the ones needed to get your product out there and beyond the Windows/Mac shadow and get rid of these members of your community whose hatred destroys your message. There were a few of you that got me interested in Ubuntu and I am going to have a friend of mine install it on my home computer and see how that goes. So I applaud you…and thank you for the civility.

I think it’s very sad that members of the Ubuntu and Linux community acted in this fashion toward the lady who purchased the laptop, as well as toward the reporter and TV station who were simply doing their job. These actions were a huge black eye to the Ubuntu community, and this story is proof of concept that mainstream Linux is a far away dream.

Personally, over the past week, I’ve had my own revelation about Linux as well. For the past week I’ve been using the (wonderful) Windows 7 Beta on my work PC (in a production environment). I have had zero downtime, zero issues and maximum enjoyment using the new operating system. I can’t wait for it to be released, in fact. I honestly had to keep reminding myself that this was Beta software and that it would most likely improve before the final release. The thought of it getting any better practically makes me have to pinch myself! This is the first version of Windows that I’ve ever Beta tested, but I have run countless Beta versions of Ubuntu over the years, and many are barely usable. Why such the difference in quality?

Another event that first attributed to my new revelation about Linux was doing volunteer work triaging bugs for Ubuntu. I was truly amazed at the number of Bugs that go un-touched; especially in the ‘so-called’ Long-Term-Support releases. It’s like once they release a version everyone drops it and starts working on the next version. Many bugs are closed simply saying to upgrade to a newer version (often even recommending the user use unstable pre-release software) rather than fix the problem.

This is a huge reason why Linux will never succeed in the mainstream market. Us geeks and nerds can tinker and work around many bugs and glitches, but my Aunt Betty wouldn’t know where to start. In fact, she wouldn’t know anything about reporting a bug. She would just know something she wanted to do didn’t work, or that her software crashed. Many members of the Linux community are so accustomed to communicating with others of a similar skill-set they lose touch with the reality around them, that everyone isn’t a ‘techie’ and they just want software that works. Hell, I am a techie, and I’ve gotten to the point that I just want software that works.

Am I going to ‘give up’ on Linux? Never touch it again? No – that would be silly on my part. I will still use Linux in Virtual Machines and check out new versions of my favorite distributions that way. I will still find unique and productive uses for it. For example, it’s a great Server OS, or a great way to turn an older PC into a Thin Client. Nothing in my opinion works better as a Virtual Machine host. Linux is also a great fit for the netbooks that have just become so popular, and it’s these kinds of niche markets that the Linux distributions need to focus on. They need to stop worrying about taking market share away from Windows and Mac – it ain’t ever gonna happen folks. Wake up and smell the Folgers!  

Why do you say?

1. Talk about “choice” all you want, but there are too many distributions.
2. Again, talk about “choice” all you want but there are too many Desktop Environments.
3. Most people have at least some mainstream, closed-source software that they need, and likely have never heard of WINE, no do they want to go through the additional hoops to make it work. They want to put in a CD, install it, and be done.

Where will Linux continue to succeed and grow it’s market share?

1. Servers
2. Virtualization
3. Netbooks
4. Geeks and nerds who want to constantly tinker with their OS.

Let’s face it – Linux is a “hobbyist” system, much like the Amiga became. There will always be the “cult” following that it has now – in fact, I don’t see much changing in either direction from where things are right now. Linux will continue to be used by people who want to use their Operating System rather than their Computer.

Now, where does that leave Open Source Software? Personally, I think many open source projects will continue to grow and prosper, but on Windows and Mac. Firefox will continue to grow it’s market share, so will Google’s Open Source browser Chrome. I know a lot of people who use the Open Source image editor Paint.NET, and let’s not forget GIMP. OpenOffice will continue to find it’s way on more and more systems, and many other smaller projects such as 7zip, Audacity, Filezilla and the worlds greatest media player, VLC will continue to gain users – but on Windows and Mac. As great as all of these Open Source projects are, most people can’t give up their proprietary applications for good.

I’ve loaded Vista up on my machines here, and I’m not looking back. I’m looking forward – to Windows 7 and beyond. I’ve had it up to my eyeballs with the constant upgrades, the constant work-arounds, and the constant tinkering…that’s what Virtual Machines are for.

What are your thoughts? Flame away – show your true colors. I’m all ears!